New Zealand exporters are holding their ground in the face of rising trade barriers, according to the 2025 ExportNZ DHL Export Barometer. The survey shows that two-thirds (79%) of exporters have maintained or grown their export volumes in the past year, with 59% expecting further growth in the coming 12 months.
The findings come despite mounting concerns over tariffs and global trade disputes. Selina Deadman, vice president, commercial at DHL Express New Zealand, says: “It’s encouraging to see that the majority of New Zealand exporters have continued to ship internationally over the past year. International trade has faced increased scrutiny due to upcoming barriers, it’s a positive indication that exporters are optimistic about cross-border trade, and it will be interesting to see how these expectations evolve in 2026. This also reflects the confidence that DHL Express has in globalization and its importance in economic growth.”
The United States has been at the centre of recent policy changes, shaping much of the export conversation. At the time of the survey, New Zealand was operating under a 10% tariff baseline with the elimination of the ‘de minimis’ set for 2027. As a result, 53% of respondents still focused on the US as a key market for 2026. Since then, however, reciprocal tariffs have lifted to 15% and the de minimis removal has been brought forward to August 2025 – changes that will test exporter resilience through the rest of the year.
Executive director of ExportNZ Joshua Tan says diversification is increasingly part of exporters’ strategy. “This year’s survey results show strongly that Kiwi businesses are considering new markets outside their traditional, with the likes of the United Kingdom (41%) and Japan (27%) both seeing an increase of 4% in exporter interest. In the case of the UK, this shift is likely influenced by the New Zealand-UK Free Trade Agreement, which came into effect in mid-2023 and is starting to deliver outcomes.”
Exporters continue to face cost pressures, with transport and logistics highlighted as the most significant barrier (49%), followed by the high cost of doing business in New Zealand (31%). Concerns about a widening trade war, however, saw the sharpest increase – cited by 27% of respondents compared with last year. “Increased concern around trade wars becoming a barrier was expected, with a 15% rise from last year. Concerns over high tariffs due to a lack of trade agreements also saw a 7% increase,” Tan says.
When asked about external support, exporters were split. A quarter (25%) said they did not need help from NZTE in overseas markets, while others saw value in targeted support – 22% wanted more assistance, 20% sought research and development support, and another 20% identified access to market research as a priority.
Looking ahead, exporters identified ‘More Free-Trade Agreements with new partners’ (32%) and ‘Support for attending trade shows’ (32%) as the most desired forms of government support to stimulate export activity.
Despite global turbulence, the survey underscores a key message: New Zealand’s exporters are not retreating, but adapting, diversifying, and looking to seize new opportunities.